From predicting AI trends to navigating legal battles and beyond, let’s take a comprehensive look at what awaits in the world of AI in 2024.
Very few people successfully predicted how quickly generative AI would gain momentum in 2023. Before gazing into a virtual crystal ball again, futurist Daniel Burrus believes there’s a simple process that can help us better forecast what's awaiting on the horizon. All you need to do is separate hard and soft trends.
"Hard Trends" are things we know will happen, like the growth of technology and an aging population. These are facts we can count on. On the other hand, "Soft Trends" are possibilities that might happen but can change. They depend on factors like how quickly people adopt new technology or regulation changes.
We already know that OpenAI has big plans for 2024. So, a hard trend could be safely predicting that Chat GPT 4.5 will arrive in the first half of the year and version 5.0 to drop in the second half of 2024. A soft trend could be achieving AGI. Sure, it might happen, but it seems unlikely until at least 2025. With this in mind, what can we expect from AI in 2024?
The rising tide of AI-related lawsuits
In 2023, we saw a significant rise in lawsuits, notably with The New York Times announcing its intention to sue Microsoft and OpenAI for billions. Even a tumultuous period at OpenAI unfolded like a Netflix drama with the brief dismissal and subsequent reinstatement of co-founder and CEO Sam Altman.
OpenAI, Microsoft, and GitHub are also embroiled in another lawsuit over the alleged unauthorized use of code in the AI tool Copilot. But there‘s another wave of lawsuits against developers of generative AI, including Stability AI and Midjourney, accused by artists of training their text-to-image generators on copyrighted artwork.
Collectively, these legal battles highlight the complex and evolving issues surrounding intellectual property rights in the age of AI. A narrative that we can expect to continue throughout 2024.
Digital deception and the proliferation of deep fakes
As fake person generators and deep fake videos become the norm, we can safely predict more of the same in 2024. Voice cloning technologies can already accurately replicate human voices and threaten the security of banking systems. But the implications in 2024 will extend far beyond personal security to broader areas, from corporate espionage to political manipulation.
The proliferation of digital deception necessitates an urgent response, highlighting the growing need for specialized detection tools and expert knowledge. These tools and skills will be crucial in identifying and neutralizing AI-generated falsifications, thereby safeguarding the integrity of information in a rapidly evolving digital world.
AI in your pocket
It was recently revealed that Apple wants to shift its AI strategy by directly enabling AI processes on its devices rather than relying on cloud-based systems. But what would AI in our pocket look like?
Large Language Models (LLMs) functioning natively within smartphones would be a significant technological advancement. Inevitably, this development would lead to Apple and Google initiating tests and beginning the rollout of highly advanced voice assistants. Leveraging integrated LLMs could open up more sophisticated and intuitive user interactions. Although we might see a few announcements toward the end of the year, I highly doubt that we will see anything in 2024.
Google's search empire faces a new AI challenge
The potential rise of copilots as a dominant force in the tech industry poses a critical challenge to Google's long-established search business model. As these AI-driven assistants become increasingly prevalent, the spotlight turns to Google, raising questions about its ability to stay ahead in this rapidly evolving landscape.
The stakes are high with the launch of Gemini Ultra. Many will watch on the sidelines to see if it will live up to the hype or fall short, leaving room for rivals like OpenAI to capitalize with their innovative updates and model releases. It could go one of two ways for Google, but if it falters in this high-stakes game, it could trigger a significant shake-up within the company.
Imagine if the tech behemoth had to grapple with the ramifications of losing ground in a field they once dominated. This scenario paints a picture of a dynamic and fiercely competitive tech world where the actions of industry giants have far-reaching implications and a wave of high-profile resignations, starting with critical figures in Google's AI division.
However, Google could triumph in 2024, so grab your popcorn because things could be about to get very interesting.
AI wearables are another exciting soft trend that pivots away from traditional screen-focused devices towards more integrated, context-aware wearables that blend unobtrusively into our personal and professional realms. But could it signal the beginning of a journey into a post-smartphone world?
2024 could be the year we see wearables as much more than nice-to-have gadgets. For example, continuous health monitoring devices, like glucose monitors and insulin pumps, are prime examples of how wearables are possibilities in chronic illness management.
Humane's AI Pin is promising a future where technology is not just worn but is also a style statement. However, the discreet nature of these devices raises significant privacy concerns, especially in light of their ability to record and process personal data. The potential legal implications in various scenarios, such as driving while wearing smart glasses, also underscore the need for a careful balancing act between innovation and regulatory compliance.
AI wearables are destined to evolve and become more integrated into our lives. Many believe they will be seen as a tool for health management and lifestyle enhancement. However, the success of rebranding wearables will be determined by the delicate balance between safeguarding privacy and enhancing user experience.
AI-powered attacks and countermeasures
Cybersecurity is also poised to undergo a massive transformation due to the increasing influence of AI. On the offensive front, AI is expected to amplify the sophistication and efficacy of cyber threats. We will likely see a surge in AI-driven tactics, including advanced deepfakes and intricate phishing schemes.
These strategies will encompass AI-generated malware and extend to automated attacks, shifting towards more dynamic and adaptable cyber threats. Using AI to craft convincing social engineering attacks poses a particularly daunting challenge, making it increasingly difficult to differentiate between legitimate and deceptive communications.
Defensively, the response to these heightened threats will be equally AI-centric with new AI-based detection tools and applications. Without the identity and em, businesses will be unable to neutralize AI-generated threats that traditional security measures might miss.
We are approaching a future where the battle against cyber threats becomes more complex and intertwined with AI. Businesses need a more nuanced and advanced approach to cybersecurity.
The rise of AI manipulation
In 2024, 49% of the world's population in more than 64 countries will head to the polls in national elections. But voters will also be faced with the proliferation of advanced deepfakes and the spread of misinformation from all sides. These challenges will test the resilience of democracy and raise crucial questions about the integrity of information in an era dominated by AI-manipulated content.
Rather than being distracted by the pursuit of AGI, the more exciting stories of the year will be around striking a balance between harnessing AI's capabilities and guarding against its misuse. Ultimately, in 2024 and beyond, ethical and responsible development and deployment of AI technologies will hold the keys to securing a trustworthy and stable digital future for all. But as an eternal optimist, I’m hopeful that one of the biggest changes we will see is that people will embrace AI as a work ally rather than a threat.
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