Chances of asteroid hitting Earth nearly doubles

The chances of a recently discovered asteroid hitting Earth in the year 2032 have almost doubled and could continue to increase.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has said that the asteroid, which was discovered just after Christmas in 2024, has a 98% chance of missing Earth.

However, this means that the odds of the asteroid hitting Earth have increased from 1.3% to 2.3%.

The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is somewhere between 130 feet and 330 feet long, according to experts from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System who helped identify the space rock and the ESA.

According to the European Space Agency (ESA), automated systems soon determined that the object had a small chance of impacting Earth on December 22nd, 2032.

Now, the asteroid has a 2% chance of hitting Earth, according to the ESA.

However, NASA has said that the chance of the asteroid hitting Earth is 2.3%.

This means that there's a 1 in 43 chance that the asteroid will hit Earth, which isn’t insignificant.

While the exact size of the asteroid is still unknown, the estimated size (130ft to 330ft) could do significant damage. If it hits Earth, the asteroid could wipe out an entire city and threaten life on Earth.

Astronomers are actively monitoring the asteroid, and experts at NASA have previously stated that asteroid collisions are the only natural disaster that could be prevented.

On the plus side, the asteroid was spotted quite early, which means that there will be time to prepare, work out a precise impact location, and, if necessary, allow people to evacuate.

“It is important to remember that an asteroid’s impact probability often rises at first before quickly dropping to zero after additional observations,” said the ESA.

Still, an asteroid of this size is a concern. A 130-foot asteroid comparable to the Tunguska meteor that exploded in Siberia in 1908 and decimated an 800-square-mile forest. That’s over twice the size of New York City.

Experts say a 330-foot asteroid would cause far greater localized damage. If it hit a city, it would be destroyed.