This most spectacular of years for bitcoin (BTC) is about to end, raising more questions about what this optimism might bring in 2025. Join us as we predict which trends might accelerate, which hype might die down, and what might remain the same.
We’ve prepared predictions on current trends in bitcoin and the broader crypto space, and we’ll revisit them next year to see how accurate they were. Just a reminder: while predicting the future is complicated, the crypto industry is particularly full of surprises.
Bitcoin price: optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic scenarios
The price of Bitcoin is one of the most critical factors affecting the market. However, next year, given the rising adoption of this technology on the national and corporate levels, we might see a stronger decoupling from BTC and the rest of the market.
In either case, rising BTC prices eventually lift the entire industry by attracting more capital, which often rotates into subsectors and assets such as altcoins. After rallying around 150% in 2024, BTC is now in an environment where further gains seem still plausible: improving regulation in the US, easing monetary policy, growing interest from governments, institutions, and corporations, along increasing attention from retail investors.
However, should the upcoming Donald Trump administration fail to deliver on promises or meet expectations, this could trigger a sharper correction in BTC. Our baseline scenario anticipates BTC surpassing $150,000 in 2025 and possibly moving toward $200,000 in an optimistic scenario – though a sharper correction may follow.
Conversely, a pessimistic scenario might see BTC correcting below $100,000, potentially diving toward $80,000 or lower if global macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or/and if Trump’s policies fall short.
Quantum (in)security
After Google introduced its quantum chip, Willow, in December 2024, debates about bitcoin’s resistance to quantum computing are set to intensify in 2025. We’ll likely see more proposals and potential solutions for addressing this challenge, including discussions about whether a bitcoin hard fork might be necessary.
This issue will also capture the attention of developers across other major blockchains. However, it’s unlikely that a universally agreed-upon solution will emerge in 2025 unless there’s an unexpected breakthrough in quantum computing requiring urgent action.
AI: payments, scammers, and mining
The intersection of the bitcoin/crypto asset sector and AI will deepen in at least three ways:
- AI payments: AI agents are expected to increasingly use BTC and other crypto assets for payments while executing tasks. BTC is likely to dominate this sector, particularly if AI agents adopt the Lightning Network or other emerging BTC Layer 2 (L2) scaling solutions. Other crypto assets may also gain traction, depending on AI developer preferences or task-specific needs, such as privacy requirements or compatibility with other blockchains.
- AI-driven scams: AI will play a growing role in crypto scams, such as phishing attacks and other theft attempts, prompting the development of AI-powered countermeasures.
- Mining and AI integration: More bitcoin miners will allocate part of their computational power to AI, though this trend will also hinge on BTC’s price trajectory.
Bitcoin adoption layers
Bitcoin adoption is set to expand across several domains:
1. State and institutional adoption
As the US debates launching a strategic BTC reserve, at least one country may pass legislation establishing a national BTC reserve or fund in 2025. Is it going to be the US? Not necessarily, but this geopolitical race for bitcoin prominence will likely accelerate, even among G-20 nations.
Additionally, more private and public companies are expected to add BTC to their reserves. The major BTC holder, MicroStrategy, might spend at least another $20 billion on BTC purchases, though their growing dominance will increasingly be scrutinized in the industry.
Conservative investors, such as pension funds, may also start increasingly investing in BTC through vehicles like exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, this growing adoption of BTC might also increase interest in other crypto assets, as companies might start investing in altcoins more as well.
In the EU, with the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation coming into effect, more banks are likely to offer crypto-related services like custody and trading. Even mainland China, keen to turn Hong Kong into a crypto hub, may show greater openness to the sector.
2. BTC as a payment method
While BTC’s adoption as a means of payment will grow, this growth is expected to be slower than its price increase. L2 technologies and other solutions such as Fedimint, Cashu, that help bitcoin scale will drive adoption, enabling more businesses to accept BTC.
However, BTC, as a means of payment, faces growing competition from stablecoins, with BTC-powered stablecoins potentially also gaining traction.
3. BitcoinFi
Bitcoin blockchain and its layers-powered financial apps will continue to grow, introducing new use cases and competing with other platforms like Ethereum. However, the L2 hype may cool down, with some projects potentially failing.
Return of Bitcoin wars
Increased governmental and institutional adoption of BTC will likely heighten tensions within the community regarding bitcoin’s future roadmap. Governments and large institutional holders may push for protocol ossification, while the cypherpunk faction will advocate for updates to enhance bitcoin’s privacy and programmability.
A significant battle, reminiscent of the Block Size War, could arise over the proposed covenants upgrade, which would improve bitcoin’s programmability and privacy, among other things. In 2025, cypherpunks may have an edge in this debate, though institutional influence could grow dangerously in subsequent years.
Ethereum and competitors
Ethereum will strive to regain its standing among smart contract platforms by leveraging its security and decentralization without making significant changes to its roadmap. Its success may hinge on issues in competing ecosystems, such as another potential Solana (SOL) crash.
Meanwhile, venture capitalists will continue investing in new blockchains, hoping to make profits on token sales and capitalize on trends like tokenized real-world assets.
Regulation, privacy, and taxes
The global regulatory landscape is expected to become more favorable for crypto assets, with privacy and taxes as key focus areas. Privacy-related solutions will proliferate and improve, while governments will intensify efforts to enforce KYC/AML (know your customer/anti-money laundering) requirements.
This dynamic will increasingly resemble a game of whack-a-mole. Countries may also increasingly compete on tax policy, offering more favorable conditions for crypto investors, though some nations might still impose unrealized gains taxes.
Gambling on memes, predictions, and mining
Retail investors' appetite for speculation will likely grow in 2025. Despite frequent scams and rug pulls, meme coins are unlikely to lose their allure, although this could attract regulatory scrutiny.
Decentralized prediction markets are expected to gain traction, with more platforms entering this space and embedding prediction markets in other sectors, such as news sites. A niche yet growing trend is bitcoin solo mining, where home miners attempt to win bitcoin block rewards using simple, low-cost hardware. In a way, it’s also a lottery. However, it at least helps decentralize bitcoin mining.
These trends are likely to shape 2025 based on developments in 2024 and prior years. However, as the classic disclaimer states, past performance does not guarantee future results, and the crypto industry remains capable of delivering unexpected surprises, both positive and negative. We’ll find out soon enough.
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