Russia braces for a long, painful cyber standoff with the West

Russia is making preparations for a prolonged confrontation with Europe and other Western countries. Various hybrid activities have been observed in the Netherlands, including misinformation campaigns, sabotage activities, and cyberattacks.

That’s what the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) and the Defence Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) conclude in their latest report, Between War and Peace.

According to the Dutch intelligence services, Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO and is carrying out various activities to test the West’s willingness to escalate.

Both prior to and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia engaged in large-scale, low-threshold cyber activities, including DDoS attacks, hack-and-leak attacks, wiper attacks, and defacements.

Gradually, Russia has begun to focus more on cyber espionage to obtain military and diplomatic information from NATO allies. As the war continued, Russian cyber activities became more complex, probably because of the West’s continued support for Ukraine. With these advanced cyber activities, Russia has begun to focus more explicitly on vital infrastructure.

Numerous Russian cyber activities have been detected in the Netherlands. Last year, for example, an unnamed Russian threat actor managed to take control of an unknown number of chat accounts belonging to government employees.

“Not only was access gained to the compromised accounts, but these accounts were also controlled, so that contacts were under the impression that they were in contact with the victim,” the report states.

The intelligence services add that Russian cyber actors are still claiming victims by sending malicious emails or chat messages.

According to the AIVD and MIVD, both the technical knowledge and capabilities of state-sponsored Russian hackers have increased, as well as their willingness to collect sensitive information (espionage) and carry out cyber sabotage once they’ve compromised vital systems.

The intelligence services assess that Russia isn’t ready for a larger-scale war with the West, but that it’s rapidly building up to this. This doesn’t mean that Russia currently has any actual intention of doing so. However, it’s important to prepare for such a scenario.

“To be prepared for a possible further military escalation and at the same time counter the Russian hybrid threat, the Netherlands must increase its own resilience. This requires vigilance on the part of government organizations, think tanks, and the business community. After all, if vital sectors fail, this could seriously disrupt society,” the report concludes.