Europe's risky reliance on US tech

Europe loves to talk about digital autonomy. But a quick look at its infrastructure tells a very different story. A significant chunk of Europe's digital economy, from cloud platforms and productivity software to data services, runs on technology owned, operated, and ultimately governed in the US.

US hyperscalers have traditionally moved faster, scaled better, and invested billions across the continent. But as geopolitical tensions continue to rise and data becomes inseparable from power, the question has shifted from efficiency and cost to what happens when access can no longer be taken for granted.

This epiphany comes at a time when Europe-US ties are at their lowest in NATO history. Fears of a big tech kill switch plunging websites into darkness and leaving critical data inaccessible have suddenly become very real concerns.

With Google, Microsoft, and Amazon providing 70% of Europe's cloud-computing infrastructure, the lack of digital sovereignty is beginning to set off a few alarm bells. But could Europe really go cold turkey on US tech and survive on local alternatives?

What happens during a digital blackout

The idea of a digital blackout sounds dramatic. But it's enough to concern many European governments responsible for critical infrastructure. In Helsingborg, Sweden, local authorities took the proactive step of testing how public services would function if core digital systems suddenly went dark.

The checks covered everything from identity checks to communications and basic administration. The early lessons showed how modern states were digitally dependent until cloud logins fail, collaboration tools vanish, and identity systems become unreachable. Entire layers of government and commerce grind to a halt.

The days of European leaders assuming that US-based tech infrastructure would always be there or that geopolitical tensions would cool down are gone. The mere threat of a tech blackout is exposing how fragile that assumption is, not just technically but socially.

Breaking free from digital dependencies

Schleswig-Holstein's decision to remove Microsoft tools from much of its public sector showed that a path toward digital sovereignty is possible. To put this into context, the move meant that judges, police officers, and teachers would no longer rely on Office 365.

A few years ago, the thought of US tech being replaced with open-source alternatives designed to keep control of data, infrastructure, and decision-making within Germany would have been unthinkable.

The latest move reflects a growing unease across Europe about dependence on US tech. All sharpened by rising geopolitical tension and renewed scrutiny of how foreign laws can reach into European systems. For Schleswig-Holstein's digital leadership, the lesson mirrors energy debates triggered by the war in Ukraine.

Elsewhere, France has also announced plans to replace Microsoft Teams and Zoom across parts of the government with a domestically built video-conferencing platform. In Belgium, the country's cybersecurity leadership has admitted that storing data entirely within Europe is currently unrealistic because of US dominance in cloud and platform services.

US tariffs have shown how quickly access to modern life can be withdrawn when infrastructure is controlled elsewhere. But there is recognition that digital dependence now carries real political, economic, and security consequences, and this is starting to change how European governments think and act.

Reality check: Europe's dream to wean off US tech

There is no escaping the fact that Europe still relies heavily on US platforms across cloud computing, AI, and advanced chips. European policymakers might be beginning to identify where autonomy is essential and where cooperation remains unavoidable. But the rebuilding of an entire technology stack takes time and talent.

The hard truth is that digital sovereignty will not come from severing ties overnight. It will require much more thought to carefully decide which dependencies can be tolerated and which carry too much risk to ignore.

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The biggest obstacle to a new European infrastructure is not ambition. Modern AI systems and large-scale cloud infrastructure depend on vast amounts of cheap, reliable electricity, and this is where Europe is at a structural disadvantage.

Data centers do not tolerate volatility and require predictable baseload power at prices that make long-term investment viable. The problem is that energy prices have surged across the region after Russia invaded Ukraine. Despite rapid growth in renewables, Europe has struggled to replace the scale once provided by Russian gas.

In the United States, access to inexpensive energy and land has enabled multi-gigawatt data center projects to move quickly. But in Europe, similar plans are hindered by higher power costs and tighter energy grids. This creates a hard ceiling on how fast European cloud and AI capacity can scale, regardless of political will or funding.

Without solving the energy equation, Europe's tech ambitions are constrained by infrastructure economics. Sure, they are capable of progress, but they will struggle to compete at the scale modern AI and cloud platforms now demand.

Europe could, in theory, rebuild significant parts of the digital stack it currently rents from American firms. But the price of doing this would be accepting years of disruption and higher costs. Then there is the small matter of a massive reallocation of public and private capital toward infrastructure that most citizens never see but would immediately feel if it failed.

Europe, American tech, and the limits of digital independence

So can Europe go without American tech? One day, but it will require a mindset shift and focus on the long game across an entire continent that’s better known for regulation than innovation.

Bringing a vision of digital independence to life will be difficult and require unified decisions across budgets, markets, and political areas. Until that time, digital sovereignty will look like "selective isolation" rather than "separation."

The first step in this journey of digital sovereignty is to reduce the most damaging dependencies on US-based technologies while continuing to use them. But the path to genuine technological independence is littered with economic and social disruption over many years.

Despite the increasingly strained relationship between the US and the EU, they both need each other more than they would admit publicly. Both sides will be looking to find common ground and avoid a messy "digital divorce," which could leave both parties worse off. But if any good should come from this storm in a teacup, it’s the identification and removal of digital vulnerabilities.

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