Absence of Apple Intelligence leads to lower iPhone 16 Pro demand, analyst says

While iPhone 16 and 16 Plus pre-order sales were up this year, the Pro line declined, resulting in lower overall demand.

Estimated pre-order sales of all four of Apple’s 16th generation of iPhones, which the company unveiled last week at its Glowtime event, show that the new line of smartphones didn’t entice customers as much as the 15th generation.

According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, weekend pre-order sales of the iPhone 16 are estimated at about 37 million units, which is 12.7% lower than the first weekend sales of the iPhone 15 series year-over-year.

Kuo says the key factor here is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone Pro series models, which make up the lion’s share of all iPhone 16-line sales.

The analyst’s data show that during the first weekend of pre-order sales, Apple sold 17.1 million Pro Max and 9.8 million Pro units, which is 16% and 27% less than the sales of Apple’s 15 Pro line, respectively.

The lower sales of the Pro series can be attributed to the absence of Apple Intelligence, which the company considers to be the major selling point. Apple will start rolling out its AI only this October, and some of its AI features are expected to extend into next year.

Another reason that impacts Apple’s succes is increasing competition in China, one of the company’s main markets. Previous data suggest that Chinese consumers are increasingly choosing devices from local manufacturers, such as Huawei, Vivo, Honor, and Hiaomi.

In addition to growing local competition, it is still unclear whether Apple’s AI will be available in China due to regulation.

iPhone 16 Plus sales up by 48%

While the sales of the iPhone 16 Pro line declined, pre-orders of the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus were up. According to Kuo, Apple sold 7.3 million regular iPhone 16 smartphones and 2.6 million of the Plus model, which is a 10% and 48% increase compared to the iPhone 15 line.

According to the analyst, Apple has opportunities to improve its overall sales through the release of Apple Intelligence and holiday season promotions later this year.

“Suppose Apple Intelligence releases in Q4 and peak season promotions have a limited effect on iPhone 16 shipments. In that case, I believe that Apple will implement more aggressive iPhone product strategies in 2025 to stimulate market demand,” the analyst says.

Aside from Apple Intelligence features, another main selling point of the iPhone 16 Pro line is expected to be its Camera Control button.