iPhone 16 will not be revolutionary, but it will spark the next upgrade cycle

Apple Intelligence will be one of the major factors urging users to renew, though the iPhone 16 itself will offer mostly incremental updates.

For quite some time, there has been a clear trend in the smartphone world – fewer truly innovative smartphone features every year.

Aside from companies launching foldables, which still account for only 1-2% of the market, smartphone design hasn’t changed much. New flagship models largely resemble their predecessors, with modest changes like slightly increased screen sizes or revamped buttons making headlines.

On the inside, smartphones come with incremental changes, such as improved cameras, longer batteries, and improved tech specs.

The latter matters mostly for tech geeks, as even mid-range phones can handle the average user’s needs. Only with the recent AI boom did internal specs such as RAM and new processors become more significant, as they may be determining factors in whether a phone is capable of running AI.

This trend of minimal innovation is particularly striking if we look at the evolution of iPhones.

New iPhone 16 features

The last iPhone to introduce a more significant revamp was the iPhone 12, released in 2020. It featured flatter edges, 5G connectivity, OLED displays, a ceramic shield cover, and MagSafe.

Subsequent Apple smartphones were introduced with mostly incremental upgrades, including better cameras, specs, a feature for showing notifications called Dynamic Island, and a USB-C connection – a change forced upon Apple by the EU.

Apple smartphones with more innovative designs are due to arrive in the upcoming years. Apple’s slimmest iPhone, dubbed iPhone Slim, is planned for next year, while Apple’s foldable is expected to be released in 2026.

Meanwhile, this year’s iPhone 16, which will be launched on September 9th at Apple’s Glowtime event, will be similar to previous models.

Based on rumors, the iPhone 16 will get the action button, which was already introduced with the iPhone 15 Pro, a slightly redesigned camera that will now record spatial video support and macro photos, and a new color option.

The more expensive models, iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max, may feature a new camera button, slightly bigger screens, a new processor, and maybe increased RAM.

Apple’s AI to renew

This year, in addition to relatively incremental improvements, Apple is bringing Apple Intelligence to its latest smartphone line.

Apple’s AI will include smarter Siri, which will now be able to understand contextual information, AI-based summaries of meetings and articles, and AI-writing assistants, among other features.

Only two of the previous iPhone models – iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max – will be capable of running Apple Intelligence. As Apple’s executives previously explained, these models have Apple’s AI-capable chip and 8GB of RAM, which is just enough for running AI.

Limited AI availability on the previous models should make the iPhone 16 line one of the major upgrade factors, at least based on sales of Galaxy S24, Samsung’s AI-loaded smartphone.

Samsung’s Flahsip sales grew 8% year over year, while in the US, the increase was 14%. According to a survey done earlier by Kantar, around 24% of Samsung’s users said AI was the main reason for an upgrade.

There is no data yet about the sales of Google’s Pixel 9, which also features significant AI upgrades. However, based on positive reviews and first impressions, it’s also likely to see an uptick in sales.

Considering that last year, in the face of growing economic uncertainty, Apple was able to achieve similar sales compared to 2022 despite quite modest iPhone 15 updates, the iPhone 16 with AI features is likely to increase sales.

Potential setbacks in China

However, a few potential factors may limit the global success of the iPhone 16.

First, there are still questions about Apple Intelligence's availability in China, one of its biggest markets. This year, stiffening competition with local Chinese manufacturers has already resulted in a revenue decline.

In addition to increasing competition, it is still unclear whether Apple Intelligence will be available in China due to its regulations. According to the South China Morning Post, Apple’s AI is partly powered by OpenAI’s GPT large language models (LLMs), which cannot be made commercially available in China.

Local Chinese vendors, including Huawei, which has scheduled its product launch a day after the iPhone 16, can offer their local AI models in their latest phones. If Apple does not find a workaround, the iPhone will be even less appealing to Chinese consumers.

Another thing to consider is that not all Apple Intelligence features will be available at launch. According to a previous report by Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, smarter Siri and some other AI updates will probably stretch into next year.

Knowing that a significant portion of smartphones sell during the first weeks of launch, along with the initial hype wave, this may deter some users from buying.

Apple Watch anniversary edition

Along with the iPhone, Apple will announce its 10th edition of the Apple Watch, Apple Watch Ultra 3, and new Apple AirPods on Monday.

After poor Apple Watch sales last year, influenced by economic uncertainty and a ban on a few models in the US due to Apple’s patent dispute, this year's Apple Watch sales should mark a significant increase.

The company reportedly planned a major overhaul for its symbolic 10 edition, which is rumored to be called Apple Watch X. However, not all planned Apple updates will come to its latest smartwatches.

According to analyst Ming Chi Kuo, the new watch is expected to have a slimmer design and come in bigger sizes. It will now feature 45mm and 49mm versions, as well as a mechanism that allows watch bands to be attached magnetically.

However, planned health functionalities may not arrive this year. The company was developing technology to detect high blood pressure and sleep apnea, but it reportedly faced technical issues, which will likely result in postponing the features to last year’s model.