Is the international order falling apart at the Munich Security Conference?

The Munich Security Conference opened against diplomatic uncertainty and geopolitical tension on Valentine's Day. But there was very little love in the room between international leaders.

As the Munich Security Conference got underway, the topic of multipolarization could be found everywhere. The panel discussion, "AI Just Can't Get Enough: Disinformation, AI, and Democracy," highlighted how AI is already shaping political discourse.

Gina Neff posed a critical question during her panel moderation, "Is the pace of technological change greater than our ability to manage it?" The panel discussed the massive scale of the challenges AI was bringing to democracies. Especially the speed at which it is outpacing regulation, centralizing power, and reshaping political influence at an unprecedented scale.

AI, centralization, and the threat to democratic institutions

Beyond the panel discussion, Neff's peer-reviewed paper – Can Democracy Survive AI? – analyzes AI's anti-democratic tendencies more deeply. Neff argues that current AI implementations embody four key characteristics that undermine democracy. They drive centralization and control, fuel unchecked economic growth ideologies, prioritize efficiency over accountability, and enable absolute power with little oversight.

Neff builds on a historical perspective, referencing Langdon Winner's 1980 assertion that "the things we call technologies are ways of building order in our world." The structural power of technology is now being amplified by AI, where algorithms determine decision-making. Authoritarian regimes are deploying AI to manipulate narratives, rewrite history in real time, and create entirely new realities.

Multipolarization is seen by many as a double-edged sword. It began with the best intentions and promised more inclusive governance. But it also increases the risk of disorder and conflict, particularly as AI becomes a tool for state competition rather than international cooperation.

The fragmentation that was there for all to see at the Munich Security Conference showed that AI policies are diverging. On one side, Europe prides itself on regulation and ethical oversight. On the other hand, the US and China are racing to develop AI as a strategic asset.

Conversations at the conference focussed on countering disinformation and how it requires more than fact-checking. In an ideal world, it would demand strategic, preemptive measures that leverage AI to disrupt propaganda before it spreads. But many online raised concerns that efforts to combat misinformation must not devolve into censorship that stifles free speech.

As global leaders, including US Vice President JD Vance, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, gathered at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, it was clear that the West no longer spoke with one voice. Power plays and shifting priorities are overshadowing the discussions.

A transatlantic rift over Ukraine

The war in Ukraine remained front and center, but the once-solid transatlantic alliance backing Kyiv is showing deep cracks. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, NATO and the EU stood firm in their support for Ukraine. The military and financial aid that once flowed and sanctions imposed famously sent a united message that Putin's aggression would not stand. Now, that resolve is fading.

President Trump's latest moves have sent shockwaves through European capitals. His 90-minute call with Vladimir Putin, where he signaled an interest in brokering a peace deal, has left Ukraine and its allies shellshocked.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed restoring Ukraine's pre-2014 borders as "unrealistic." The administration has also ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine.

Europe has spent billions supporting Ukraine, sheltering refugees, and bolstering NATO's defenses, only to be forced to watch from the sidelines as Trump rewrites the script. European leaders have many good reasons for being frustrated with how this final act is playing out.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has voiced concern that the US is handing Moscow concessions before negotiations begin. French President Emmanuel Macron warned that any peace deal resembling a capitulation would be a disaster for Ukraine and global security.

NATO's internal struggles

Trump's recent comments about using economic or military pressure to acquire Greenland did not go well with its European allies. A NATO member threatening another was once unthinkable. Now, it's part of the discourse.

Eastern European countries, particularly Poland and the Baltics remain wary of Russian aggression and want NATO to maintain its hardline stance. Elsewhere, leaders in France and Germany are pushing for a more significant role in defense, fearing they can no longer count on Washington's commitment.

Ukraine's fight for a seat at the table

Zelenskyy arrived in Munich to ensure that Ukraine wasn't sidelined in negotiations. He seemed desperate to appeal to Trump's business instincts by offering access to Ukraine's mineral wealth, lucrative reconstruction contracts, and future arms deals. But this final throw of the dice looks destined to fail as Washington predictably moved to cut its losses.

As world leaders gathered in Munich, the echoes of history are impossible to ignore. Just steps away from the conference venue, in 1938, Western powers ceded the Sudetenland to Adolf Hitler in a failed bid to avoid war. That moment is now widely regarded as an act of appeasement that emboldened Nazi Germany.

The parallels to today's debate over Ukraine are not lost on European nations. One senior European official said, "The US is giving Russia everything it wants before negotiations begin. If this is how it starts, how does it end?"

Where do democracies go from here?

The debate over AI regulation, accountability, and sovereignty leads us to questions of who holds power in the 21st century. If we leave the decisions about what to build to big tech, the results will be anti-democratic and built for private over public gain.

Ultimately, whether democracy can survive AI will depend on global cooperation. The conference underscored that AI governance is now a front in the battle between democracy and authoritarianism, and multi-polarization may determine the outcome.

If NATO is incapable of maintaining unity in the face of Russian aggression, its future as a pillar of global security could be in jeopardy. This weekend, decisions made or avoided will have repercussions far beyond Munich.

The question is whether the West can maintain a united front or if the emerged fractures will continue to widen, reshaping the global security order for years.