Asteroid could strike Earth in 2032, but chances are slim so far
According to researchers, there’s a 1.3% chance that a recently discovered asteroid could hit Earth in December 2032. However, there’s no need to panic, experts say.
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According to researchers, there’s a 1.3% chance that a recently discovered asteroid could hit Earth in December 2032. However, there’s no need to panic, experts say.
Just after Christmas and with the help of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), astronomers hunting near-Earth objects spotted a new space rock hurtling away from Earth.
They quickly estimated its size as somewhere between 130 feet and 330 feet long and named it 2024 YR4. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), automated systems soon determined that the object had a small chance of impacting Earth on December 22nd, 2032.
How small? Well, there’s a 1.3% chance that this particular asteroid will collide with our planet in almost eight years, according to calculations from both NASA and the ESA.
Potentially, a space rock this size could cause quite a bit of harm – but not anything close to a mass extinction. Of course, should the asteroid strike a city, the damage to its people and infrastructure would be catastrophic – but still limited.
Besides, a 1.3% chance of a hit is also a 98.7% chance of a miss, and odds may diminish over time as astronomers gather new data about the object.
Finally, the rock has been spotted quite early – this means that there will be time to prepare, work out a precise impact location, and, if it comes to it, evacuate people in a relatively orderly fashion.
“It is important to remember that an asteroid’s impact probability often rises at first before quickly dropping to zero after additional observations,” said the ESA.
It’s literally too early to tell what could happen. The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth in almost a straight line, making it difficult to accurately determine its orbit by studying how its trajectory curves over time.
It’s even possible that 2024 YR4 will fade from view entirely before the scientists are able to rule out any chance of impact in 2032 entirely. The asteroid will most likely only become observable again in 2028.
Still, an asteroid of this size is a concern. A 130-foot asteroid comparable to the Tunguska meteor that exploded in Siberia in 108 and decimated an 800-square-mile forest. That’s over twice the size of New York City.
A 330-foot asteroid would cause far greater localized damage, experts say. If it hit a city, it would be destroyed.
