Hairdryer hacking conspiracy sparks police investigation into Polymarket $35K+ wins
Numerous Polymarket users have secured tens of thousands of dollars after winning unlikely bets, raising suspicions surrounding manipulation and insider trading.
Polymarket gamblers will seemingly bet on anything. Whether it's politics or the weather, users are putting down lump sums to net big wins.
These users will also seemingly stop at nothing to win big, including hacking the system.
But instead of hacking Polymarket digitally, users are turning to analog methods.
This is exactly what happened in France, after someone allegedly tampered with official temperature readings at Charles de Gaulle airport.
Polymarket users predicted the daily peak temperature in Paris using the weather sensor at Charles de Gaulle airport, according to The Telegraph.
In early April, the markets bet that the chance of 21 °C (69.8F) or 22 °C (71.6F) was only one percent, in other words, highly unlikely.
Anyone who bet on this actually happening would make a lot of money from their initial low bet stakes.
An anonymous gambler, "xX25Xx," was flagged by analysts and other traders on Polymarket after betting $119 that the weather in Paris would jump by nearly 18 °C (64F), according to NPR.
Storm chasers then noticed a significant temperature spike during the specific time the gambler placed the bet.
The anonymous Polymarket user successfully bagged over $21,000 in profit.
Another sketchy user also won big, with French media reporting that an account that had been created only two days before had $14,000 after the temperature jumped roughly 21 °C (69.8F).
Other Polymarket gamblers also netted high wins of $34,000.
France’s official weather agency, Météo-France, notified police after complaining of the abnormal temperature readings.
Based on physical evidence and anomalous data readings, the agency suggests that the weather sensor had been tampered with.
While no official method has been identified, social media users speculate that someone may have manipulated the temperature readings using a hairdryer or a gas lighter.
A hairdryer feels like a far-fetched method, as it would most likely have to be cordless and capable of running on a battery or solar power.
While a lighter may be more likely, it may still be difficult for an average person to find, as the sensor’s location isn’t publicly disclosed.
The sensor is located on the grounds of Charles de Gaulle Airport in a secure area inaccessible to the public.
It’s likely that, if it were physically tampered with, an airport employee, a member of security, or a meteorologist with France’s weather agency would be responsible, as they’re the only people granted access.
However, this is simply speculation, and an investigation is still ongoing.
Météo-France’s weather sensor is used by the airport to track conditions and help flights run smoothly.
Polymarketers’ big wins raise huge security concerns
While this doesn’t seem to be a case of digital hacking, it’s unlikely to be ruled out – this case does highlight vulnerabilities in the French weather agency’s weather tracking methods.
Basing bets with high stakes on a single data point, like the sensor, is likely to end in disaster or victory, depending on which side of the bet you’re on.
Even without malicious activity, basing high-stakes bets on one data point is likely to yield anomalous or inconsistent results, a prediction market researcher at Lancaster University, Mark Roulston, told Decrypt.
Predicting an outcome using a single weather sensor or station, which is sometimes unpredictable, is seemingly counterintuitive.
Averaging readings across multiple weather stations would make readings less vulnerable to manipulation, leading to fairer trading across Polymarket, Roulston suggested.
Polymarket is a decentralized cryptocurrency prediction market where users can make money from political tensions, country-wide devastation, and menial things like the weather.
But when you look at who’s behind Polymarket, it might help you understand the controversy surrounding the platform.
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