What is Polymarket? And how are pro-Trump financiers involved?
On this decentralized cryptocurrency prediction market, people can make money from political tensions and country-wide devastation. And there is a group of pro-Trump VCs who are desperate to grab a piece of the action.
A suspicious group of Polymarket users placed unusually large bets that returned a combined total of $330,000 while Iranians were being hit by air strikes.
Most of these bets came just six hours before bombs dropped, according to the Financial Times.
The group collectively placed $66,993 in bets that the US would attack Iran on the day the strikes happened (February 28th, 2026).
While the well-timed high-value bets could be purely coincidental, the CEO of Unusual Whales, Matt Sanicome, told the Financial Times that it makes you question what the betters' motivation is.
Sanicome intimated that there could potentially be an insider behind those big, one-off bets, and while people do bet big and fail, it always makes you think, what do they know?
You can now bet on total annihilation
Polymarket users are now betting on something else. A nuclear apocalypse.
The dates for these nuclear detonations are in the very near future, being March 31st and June 30th.
At the time of writing, this prediction had generated $1.7 million in total trading volume in just a few hours.
While many have bet on “No” for both dates, if mysterious accounts start betting high values on “Yes” closer to the time, it may be cause for concern.
Many other nuclear-related predictions, such as “US nuclear test by…?” and “Russia nuclear test by…?”, remain on the site.
These predictions don’t signal that “the end is nye,” but they’re ominous, nonetheless.
At the time of writing, bets were over $430,000 for US nuclear tests, and more than $1 million for Russia.
Other predictions, such as the US/Israel strike on the Fordow nuclear facility, which gamblers have given almost 50/50 odds of happening by the end of March, have reached $184,000.
There is no concrete evidence to suggest insider gambling. However, the mysterious winners of high-stakes bets on events occurring between the US and Iran are riddled with question marks.
This becomes even murkier when you learn who is heavily involved with Polymarket.
Investors with Trump ties love Polymarket
The prediction market platform secured an undisclosed investment from venture capital firm 1789 Capital, which promises to fund “the next chapter of American exceptionalism.”
The founders of 1789 Capital are Omeed Malik and Christopher Buskirk, who have created other financial businesses.
You can easily find them on the 1789 Capital website, right next to their partner, Donald Trump Jr.
It appears that Trump Jr is particularly fond of Polymarket as he claims the platform “cuts through media spin and so-called ‘expert’ opinion by letting people bet on what they actually believe will happen in the world,” CNBC reported back in 2025.
Trump Jr apparently joined Polymarket as an adviser as his venture capital firm was making the investment, according to Politico Pro.
Another big name to invest in Polymarket is the former CEO of PayPal, Peter Thiel, who is an arguably controversial name in tech and politics.
The pro-Trumpian venture capitalist is a self-proclaimed libertarian and nationalist who has shown a major interest in cryptocurrency and has helped fund anti-immigration extremists, according to Politico.
Another investor in Polymarket is the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which has invested up to $2 billion in Polymarket, which is said to reflect a “valuation of approximately $8 billion across markets, politics, sport, and culture,” according to ICE.
“Our investment blends ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, which was founded in 1792, with a forward-thinking, revolutionary company pioneering change within the Decentralized Finance space,” said Jeffrey C. Sprecher, ICE chair and chief executive officer.
Sprecher and his wife, Kelly Loeffler, have previously donated a combined total of $11 million to pro-Trump groups such as the inaugural committee and MAGA, according to the New York Times.
And who is the founder of Polymarket that has all these big names in tech and politics interested in the decentralized prediction market?
The founder and CEO of Polymarket is Shayne Coplan, a 28-year-old with little to no experience outside of working on Genius’s collaboration with Spotify’s “Behind the Lyrics” feature.
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