Are people underestimating the chances that AI will take their jobs?

Despite growing evidence that AI is displacing workers, new research reveals a striking disconnect: while people acknowledge automation will transform the job market, they remain stubbornly confident it won't affect them personally. This optimism may leave societies dangerously unprepared for the disruption ahead.

While news that Amazon is laying off 14,000 staff, supposedly due in part to the rise of AI, has grabbed headlines, the impact of automation on the labor market has typically unfolded beneath the surface. Earlier this year, research from the British Standards Institute found that over 40% of bosses were using AI to cut jobs and plug skills gaps.

The study, which was undertaken across the US, Germany, France, Australia, Japan, China, and the UK, found that around a third of organizations were looking to AI before they hired anyone, with many expecting this trend to grow in the years to come.

Maintaining confidence

Despite this, the workforce remains pretty optimistic. At least that's the picture painted by research from the University of California, Merced, which suggests that the public isn't unduly concerned about AI affecting their livelihood.

The study found that people were generally optimistic about their chances when faced with AI entering the workplace, with this optimism especially strong in the longer term.

The researchers surveyed a few thousand US adults, each of whom was given information about the rapid developments in generative AI. After reading about the technology, people often thought the tech would arrive sooner rather than later.

Despite that, few thought that either the economic outcome would worsen or that policymakers should offer new forms of support to people. In other words, they weren't really any more concerned about technological unemployment.

Stubborn optimism

"These results suggest that Americans' beliefs about automation risks are stubborn," the authors explain. "Even when told that human-level AI could arrive within just a few years, people don't dramatically revise their expectations or demand new policies."

This should perhaps come as no great surprise. After all, a recent Spanish study showcased what the researchers refer to as the "invulnerability bias," which suggests that we tend to think that automation will affect other people more than it will affect us.

The study builds on a 2023 survey from Pew Research, which found that 62% of US adults believe AI will have a major impact on workers generally, but only 28% think it will significantly impact their own position.

Interestingly, however, the Spanish researchers found that while people were confident in their job survival, they weren't sure that it would be as enjoyable or meaningful.

Taking the threat seriously

While the precise impact of AI remains uncertain, it seems better that people are aware of the threat rather than being unduly optimistic. Here, the two studies provide a degree of insight into what might move the needle. While the University of California tried to raise awareness of AI to a slight extent, the Spanish study was more direct in identifying the correlation between AI literacy and greater awareness of the potential risks of automation.

It's likely that this awareness needs to be practical and experiential rather than theoretical. What's clear from the Californian study is that making technological threats feel more immediate isn't enough to either provoke action individually or mobilize support for greater government action.

This creates an uncomfortable paradox for policymakers and business leaders. If public concern only materializes after disruption becomes personal and widespread, societies may find themselves scrambling to build safety nets and retraining programs precisely when they're most urgently needed, and when budgets are most strained by rising unemployment.

Increasing exposure

The research suggests that neither alarming predictions nor distant timelines will prompt preemptive action. Instead, the pathway to realistic assessment may lie in direct engagement: getting workers to actually use AI tools in their domains, to see both the capabilities and limitations firsthand, and to develop informed rather than abstract opinions about their own vulnerability.

Whether this stubborn optimism proves justified and new jobs truly will emerge as old ones disappear, as has happened in previous technological transitions, remains to be seen.

What's certain is that we're conducting a live experiment in how societies adapt when the workforce remains calm in the face of a transformation that experts insist is imminent.

For now, most workers are placing a quiet bet: that they'll figure it out when they need to, that adaptation will come naturally, that this time won't be fundamentally different. History will judge whether that confidence was wisdom or wishful thinking.

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