Europol: brace for robot-enabled crime surge by 2035

In its latest report, Europol warns of the anticipated crimes enabled by robots and unmanned systems by 2035: from smuggling and mass intimidation to child grooming and new forms of fraud.

The new report, “The Unmanned Future(s): The impact of robotics and unmanned systems on law enforcement”, looks at the impact of robotic and unmanned systems on law enforcement. It explores the so-called “unmanned futures” where machines are assumed to be deeply integrated into our society.

“The integration of unmanned systems into crime is already here, and we have to ask ourselves how criminals and terrorists might use drones and robots some years from now. Just as the internet and smartphones presented significant opportunities as well as challenges, so will this technology,” said Europol Executive Director Catherine De Bolle.

“Our new report by Europol’s Innovation Lab explores the future operating environment for European law enforcement agencies and suggests actions needed today in order to effectively combat crime while upholding public trust and fundamental rights tomorrow.”

From theft to grooming

The researchers state that the future of robotics and unmanned systems will be influenced by the four key trends: AI and technological convergence, the expansion of the robotics industry, the growing integration of robotics in society, and war as a driver for innovation.

They then go on to explore a few possible “by 2035” scenarios. One is a spate of “bot-bashing” incidents in city centres, as well as protests by displaced workers outside automated warehouses. The rise in economic dislocation caused by automation will have significantly increased incidents of cybercrime, as well as vandalism and organised theft. Agencies, in turn, are struggling to navigate the new environment where the efficiency of unmanned systems should be balanced with public trust.

Another is crimes involving robots, such as drones used as tools in theft or automated vehicles causing pedestrian injuries. Europol also stresses long-term reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering using unmanned systems – which could be used to monitor and track suspects or collect intelligence for malicious purposes.

One more potential scenario concerns the learning of lessons from Ukraine’s “garage drone” revolution. It has effectively used drones during the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine – such as in the case of its “Spiderweb” operation that enabled a coordinated strike against five major Russian air bases.

Additionally, criminals may start actively exploiting the empathetic capabilities of social robots to abuse vulnerable people. Once all the cyber issues associated with chatbots are brought into the physical realm, criminals could be able to cause even greater harm – from disinformation to grooming. People will also form closer bonds with those robots because they’ll be interacting with them more frequently, meaning that robots will now possess highly sensitive information about them.

More possible futures

Another chilling scenario is the one in which there is virtually no more privacy. As unmanned systems become even more capable, they will be able to observe anyone, almost everywhere, anytime. Depending on the set-up, they could be used to gather data on people without their knowledge or explicit consent, says the report.

“Small extremist cells now field pocket-sized AI-guided quadcopters and shoebox-sized tracked UGS built from globally available CAD blueprints and 3D-printed composite armour,” the report imagines as another possible future.

Old school fibre-optic “leash reels” or the newer short-burst laser links would allow those machines to be pretty much invisible until moments before impact, allowing for coordinated attacks on critical infrastructure.

The rise in advanced crime will blur the lines between warfare innovation and everyday policing. Law enforcement will have to investigate crimes committed both by robots and against them, as well as manage an uptick in criminal activity as a result of growing unemployment. Additionally, a growing number of unmanned systems, from autonomous cars to social companion robots, could require new regulation and ways of policing.

For instance, how do you question a robot? This is something already asked by law enforcement – and the question will become even more prevalent, as the police have to deal with assessing the intention of humanoid robots or determining what caused an incident involving a driverless car.

And of course, there is the issue of accountability – if an autonomous system breaks the law, who should be held responsible? Is it the owner, producer, coder, or the system itself? The report says that the current legal framework cannot confidently deal with these questions.

To address the threats and the surrounding questions, the researchers recommend a joint approach on building law enforcement capability with and against unmanned systems, at both national and European levels. These findings also remind businesses that security is paramount when adopting AI or robotic technology – companies should consider potential security issues prior to implementation and address them.