The cyber game is on: whoever wins will dominate the Earth

“Whoever dominates space will, ultimately, dominate Earth.” And cyberattacks will play a decisive role in who wins the second space race.

The space race is a somewhat familiar (and deadly) game from the 20th century when the US and the Soviet Union competed for cosmos supremacy.

This time, the US, China, Russia, and an array of other players, such as India, Israel, and the UAE, are trying to establish themselves as superpowers in space.

The second space race is fundamentally different from the first contest. Experts say that cyberattacks will play a critical role in determining the winner. Cybersecurity company Recorded Future notes that cyberattacks targeting space infrastructure, organizations, and supply chains have already intensified.

“As this new race accelerates, so too will the frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks targeting organizations operating in the space domain,” a new white paper from the company, written by Joseph Rooke, reads.

A 41-page document describes the current space race in detail and highlights the importance of the cyber domain.

Key Findings:

• Future phases of the space race will focus on the Moon, mining asteroids, and exploring other planets.

• Leading players, such as the US, China, Russia, and the European Union, are investing heavily in space missions.

• Emerging space powers like Israel, South Korea, Japan, and the UAE are rapidly advancing their efforts.

• Over the last decade, there’s been a significant increase in cyberattacks against space operations.

• The most common cyberattacks against cyber operations involve signal jamming, destructive attacks, and supply chain.

Roughly half of the report discusses cyber threats, highlighting the increasing scale of malicious cyberattacks in addition to traditional intellectual property theft by nation-states.

One of the critical space system attack vectors is satellites, which have numerous points of vulnerability.

“A satellite can even be likened to an Internet of Things (IoT) device, with similar risks of exploitation,” Rooke writes.

Cybernews has extensively covered satellite hacking, too, and some say it is even easier to hijack than a Windows device.

Key components of the satellite make it susceptible to cyber threats.

The Recorded Future categorized space-related threats into four key areas, namely, espionage, signal hijacking, destructive attacks, and supply chain attacks.

The US and China are currently the leading countries in the space race, and it is likely that most espionage efforts will either originate from or target these countries. Espionage operations are orchestrated by nation-states to steal intellectual property and advance their space operations. For example, Fancy Bear, a threat actor affiliated with Russia, reportedly infiltrated US satellite networks.

“The incident exposed significant weaknesses in satellite infrastructure and emphasized the strategic risks of cyberattacks on space assets, particularly during periods of geopolitical tension,” the report said.

In the context of signal hijacking attacks, we often hear the Kremlin being blamed for interfering with satellite systems. This week, however, it was Russia itself that complained about a disrupted Starlink connection.

Experts are also sounding the alarm bells about destructive cyberattacks as the space sector is exposed to a wide array of vulnerabilities. One such example is an attack on Viasat, a US-based satellite communications company, as part of Russia's offensive on Ukraine in February 2024.

The supply chain is the last significant attack vector that affects the space industry. US defense contractors are reliant on supply chains that start in China. This does help to advance US space ambitions, but it also makes them susceptible to supply chain attacks.

“Ultimately, the stakes are monumental. Whoever dominates cyberspace will dominate outer space, and whoever dominates outer space will shape the trajectory of humanity’s future beyond this world,” the report concluded.