AI can corrupt opinion polls, sway election results
Opinion surveys have become vulnerable to artificial intelligence (AI) tools and can be exploited by foreign adversaries to influence election outcomes.
Surveys have played a crucial role in the United States' elections for nearly a century, but their reliability is now threatened by AI tools, according to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Researchers from Dartmouth College have developed an autonomous synthetic respondent that operates from a 500-word prompt.
In 43,000 tests, the AI tool passed 99.8% of attention checks designed to detect automated responses. It made zero errors in logic and successfully concealed its non-human nature.
Moreover, the tool tailored responses according to randomly assigned demographics, such as providing simpler answers when assigned less education.
Presidential approval ratings swung from 34% to either 98% or 0%, depending on whether the poll was programmed to favor Democrats or Republicans. Similarly, generic ballot support went from 38% Republican to either 97% or 1%.
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people," says study author Sean Westwood, an associate professor of government at Dartmouth.
Opinion surveys influence decisions
Opinion polls can not only predict election outcomes but also influence them. Some voters switch sides to feel accepted and to be part of a winning team.
Moreover, opinion polls help elected officials understand what their constituents think, informing their votes and policy decisions.
For instance, if AI-generated survey responses make it look like only a tiny fraction of Americans are concerned about inflation, lawmakers may not feel pressure to implement policies addressing it.
The new study suggests that adding 10 to 52 fake AI responses in the seven major national polls before the 2024 election would have flipped the predicted outcome.
Foreign adversaries could easily use AI to exploit weaknesses of opinion polls – even if bots are programmed in Russian or Mandarin, they can produce flawless answers.
This is especially concerning given that foreign powers have tried to interfere in the US election before, using methods like cyberattacks against infrastructure and misinformation campaigns.
Financial incentives can also drive the use of AI in polling. While human respondents typically earn $1.50 for completing a survey, AI bots can complete the same task for free or as little as five cents.
Westwood, the study author, says polling companies should be required to prove their participants are real people.
He says in a press release, “The technology exists to verify real human participation – we just need the will to implement it. If we act now, we can preserve both the integrity of polling and the democratic accountability it provides.”
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