What’s the real scope of crypto crime? Depends on who you ask

Blockchain analysis is still a relatively young industry, and as analysts provide varying data, the market, regulators, and law enforcement might find it challenging to evaluate the true scope of illicit crypto flows.

A recent example comes from two popular blockchain analysis firms—Chainalysis and TRM Labs—whose evaluations of the crypto crime scene sometimes differ significantly. These differences may also be attributed to early estimates and varied methodologies.

Looking at the recently announced numbers, there is a notable disparity. Chainalysis claims that illicit crypto volume dropped to $40.9 billion last year but admits this figure might be revised to around $51 billion as new data becomes available.

Meanwhile, TRM Labs estimates that illicit crypto volume decreased by 24% to $45 billion last year, which is 10% higher than Chainalysis’s initial estimate. Considering that initial estimates can still be revised upward, let’s examine the adjusted numbers for 2023.

According to Chainalysis, illicit volumes reached $46.1 billion, while TRM Labs reports $59 billion, which is 28% more.

What’s more, the discrepancy is even greater when evaluating the share of illicit volume. Chainalysis initially estimates this figure—typically subject to upward revisions as well—at 0.14%, while TRM Labs reports it as 0.4% for last year.

Final numbers for the share of illicit volumes in 2023 also diverge: Chainalysis calculates 0.61%, while TRM Labs reports 0.86%.

Meanwhile, additional insights from TRM Labs in their crypto crime report teaser indicate that the largest categories of illicit activity on the blockchain remained largely consistent with 2023.

Sanctioned entities comprised 33% of illicit volume, blocklisted entities 29%, and scams and fraud 24%. Their data also shows that volumes from sanctioned entities dropped to $14.8 billion in 2024, while fraud-related inflows decreased by 40%.

However, losses from crypto hacks increased by 17%. Moreover, cryptocurrency-enabled online sales of illicit drugs jumped 20% between 2023 and 2024, nearing $2.4 billion.

The analysts also noted that incoming volumes sent to individual vendor shops more than doubled in 2024, surpassing $600 million.

“This dramatic increase may reflect the decentralization of the drug trade away from traditional darknet markets, as vendors become more adept at operating across multiple platforms on both the clearnet and darknet (including e-commerce websites and social media platforms),” TRM Labs concluded.