2025 space outlook: Musk’s plans, rising risks, and international tensions

Next year looks likely to see more commercial space activity than ever – with some emerging risks.

Thanks in no small part to the various projects of Elon Musk, the commercialization of space is really starting to (pun intended) take off.

And while there's no doubt that there are significant opportunities, there are also emerging problems, with the sector currently something of a Wild West. And over the next year, some of these issues are likely to get worse.

Crowded low-earth orbit

One of the biggest emerging problems is the proliferation of space debris. At the end of November, the International Space Station was forced to make two manoeuvres to avoid a fragment of a defunct defense meteorological satellite that broke apart in 2015.

And, earlier in the year, a NanoAvionics satellite beamed back a picture of itself with a small hole believed to have been caused by a piece of space debris.

In one large-scale incident, space-tracking company ExoAnalytic Solutions reported earlier this year that the Intelsat 33e satellite, made by Boeing Space Systems and used to provide mobile phone coverage in Europe, Africa, and Asia, broke up into as many as 500 pieces.

As a result, according to the European Space Agency (ESA), almost 37,000 objects more than 10cm in size are now being tracked by space surveillance networks.

While various research projects have examined ways to remove debris from orbit, none have yet been operational on any scale. And the problem is only set to get worse.

If things continue as they are, there's a very real risk that the amount of space debris in orbit will effectively make space travel impossible – what's known as Kessler Syndrome. According to research from the University of Málaga, low-Earth orbit can only hold about 72,000 satellites before this point is reached.

And we’re well on the way to that number, with Musk's Starlink satellite constellation, which currently consists of more than six thousand satellites, projected to hit as many as 42,000 – with many of those to be launched next year.

Meanwhile, China has plans for a similar set-up, with two batches of satellites for the Qianfan constellation having launched, with plans for more than 600 more to go up by the end of 2025. And on top of this, Amazon’s satellite internet Project Kuiper will begin operations next year, expected to consist of 3,236 satellites. A new satellite processing facility at Kennedy Space Center in Florida is due to become fully operational in 2025.

While low Earth orbit is not likely to achieve the Kessler Syndrome level of space debris next year, it will certainly move in that direction.

While low Earth orbit is not likely to achieve the Kessler Syndrome level of space debris next year, it will certainly move in that direction.

Favorable Trump administration

Elon Musk's various enterprises look set for a good year, thanks to his close relationship with incoming president Donald Trump – although that relationship could change in an instant.

And While Musk's test rocket, Starship, most certainly won't take people to Mars, it looks set to shake up the space sector in other ways. Once fully operational, the reusable rocket should make space transport far more affordable.

There are plans for 25 launches in 2025, with a lander capable of returning astronauts to the Moon's surface expected by 2026.

Cybersecurity risks

A growing trend and cause for concern within the space sector is the danger of cybersecurity incidents. In one example, last November, satellite manufacturer Maxar reported that it had been breached, with attackers accessing personal and sensitive information about its employees. However, it said there was no impact on its operations.

And in 2022, on the day Russia invaded Ukraine, an attack on US satellite broadband services provider Viasat – believed to have been carried out by the Russian government – saw thousands of modems in Ukraine and other European countries rendered useless.

Recent research from Darktrace highlighted the space sector as a particular area of concern from a cybersecurity point of view. Darktrace expects new levels of tension to emerge as private and public infrastructure increasingly intersect in space, shining a spotlight on the lack of agreed-upon cyber norms for the sector.

Efforts are being made to regulate and protect the space sector – although not necessarily the best possible efforts. Perhaps incredibly, the main treaty covering space activity is still the Outer Space Treaty, passed by the United Nations in 1966. Understandably, this treaty doesn't mention cybersecurity at all, for example.

Meanwhile, in the absence of clear regulation, more and more countries are enacting their own unilateral laws covering commercial space activities. So far, calls for an updated international treaty have gone unanswered.