Starlink in Europe – US satellites, EU security, and space sovereignty

Down on Earth, countries are busy arguing over borders and trade deals. However, in the skies above, a different kind of territorial game is quietly unfolding. Europe’s reliance on Starlink shows that control over space infrastructure may soon matter as much as control over land.

Cybernews spoke to Stirling Forbes, the CEO of Forbes-Space, a European space consultancy specializing in satellite communications, space security, and telecom infrastructure, who explained that Europe isn’t completely dependent on Starlink for everyday use, but the system has become critical for military and aviation operation.

“I wouldn’t say Europe is dependent on Starlink today except with regard to military operations as well as with airlines.”

So when there’s an invasion, consequential geopolitical tensions can ripple all the way into orbit. Ukraine provides a real-world demonstration of how quickly a convenience service can become strategically indispensable.

“Aviation and military operations have started to rely heavily on Starlink for sensitive operations, as can be seen in Ukraine,” Forbes added.

Strategic control and sovereignty

Europe’s reliance on Starlink represents both a potential risk and a pragmatic shortcut, according to Forbes.

“Starlink is both a strategic vulnerability and a convenient shortcut as European countries did not invest in sovereign space infrastructure over the last decade until the problem materialized.”

The EU is funding IRIS², a planned constellation of satellites intended to provide secure communications for government, defense, and broadband. But deployment is 5-10 years away from max operational capacity, and even then it will have far fewer satellites than Starlink.

Essentially, this is Europe’s long-term attempt at sovereign infrastructure, but it hasn’t yet mitigated current dependence. Crisis conditions can override sovereignty, as seen in Ukraine’s reliance on the system.

Curious what others think about this story? Contribute your thoughts to the debate below.

“Ukraine’s reliance on Starlink demonstrates that strategic necessity matters most rather than sovereignty at the end of the day,” Forbes noted.

“Until IRIS2 comes online, SpaceX and ultimately the American government too, will be in control of critical European infrastructure for communication and defence.”

In the new space era, control of access outweighs ownership, making sovereignty conditional rather than absolute.

Image by Cybernews

The failure point scenario

If Starlink access were restricted, the first casualties would be military communications in Ukraine.

“The primary impact would of course be on Ukraine’s military communications,” Forbes explained.

“Beyond that, mainly commercial broadband impacts for rural customers across Europe would cause alarm.”

Transport sectors would also be affected, with maritime and aviation operations likely to experience delays. Meanwhile, ongoing government contracts could deepen dependence, locking Europe further into Starlink infrastructure.

Italy is considering a €1.5 million deal for government operations with Starlink, which could further deepen the dependency going forward...
...Forbes highlighted.

Are there alternatives?

Europe does have a sovereign satellite alternative, but it remains years away from meaningful operational capability, and even once deployed, Europe’s system will fall far short of Starlink’s current scale.

“It will have dramatically fewer operational satellites than Starlink has now, let alone in five years,” Forbes said.

Simply launching satellites does not equal parity with Starlink in terms of coverage or redundancy. Catching up is further complicated by the fact that Starlink’s scale advantage compounds each year, creating a structural lead that is difficult to overcome.

However, European airspace giants are mobilizing to reduce exposure to US-controlled infrastructure. Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales have joined forces to become a consolidated satellite player, while France has invested €717 million into Eutelsat, a potential rival to Starlink.