He bet $1,000 against UFO disclosure. Now, he's on the panel

A newly assembled UAP (unidentified anomalous phenomena) Science Advisory Panel, put together by leading scientist Avi Loeb, features various data specialists, including a skeptic who claimed to have bet $1,000 that UFO disclosure wouldn't happen.

Arvi Loeb was tasked by the US government with leading and assembling a credible scientific group amid the growing need for scientific analysis of the declassified material released by the Pentagon in recent weeks.

And, as Loeb pointed out on his Medium blog, the three tranches released by President Trump so far have amassed over a billion views, necessitating the task of “figuring out the nature of UAPs.”

Loeb chose to compare the meticulous nature of his team to that of Hollywood, particularly in light of the June 12th release of Steven Spielberg's sci-fi blockbuster Disclosure Day, about which Loeb says, “Reality is more inspiring than script writers in Hollywood.”

Furthermore, regarding the disclosure issue, Loeb painted a binary picture of the UFO question at large.

Either we are dealing with a serious breach of national security or with the biggest scientific discovery in history.

It feels like the stakes are getting higher, and in particular, the appetite for science.

The $1000 question

One of the members of Loeb's team, assigned to “the study of anomalies,” is Dr. Michael Sharmer, founder of Skeptic magazine, and debunker of bogus paranormal claims.

In 2011, Sharmer spoke of his assertion of Completely Ridiculous Alien Piffle (CRAP), which included "crop circles and cattle mutilations, alien abductions and anal probes, and human-alien hybrids.”

And as recently as December 2025, Sharmer posted on X that he had a $1000 bet that alien disclosure is “not coming in 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 or 2030…or ever because space aliens have not come to Earth.”

However, he did tell journalist Ross Coultart, of Newsnation, that he believed the US government would allow him and his team “a peaceful and non-judgemental path forward towards disclosure.”

And now that he’s on Loeb’s team, he may well have a case in point.

I’ve got $1000 bet that it’s not coming in 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 or 2030…or ever because space aliens have not come to Earth. But I’m happy to be proven wrong. https://t.co/u5Ol7Gej1K

undefined Michael Shermer (@michaelshermer) December 28, 2025

Sharmer has also called out amplified whistleblower Luis Elizondo for being both hyperbolic and vague at the same time, when talking up the possibility of “a catastrophic event” while not willing to divulge any specific information, such as where his bunker might be located.

This was probably “part of the grift to sell more books,” speculated Sharmer back in January. Though not a practicing scientist, Sharmer has a PhD in the History of Science and is more of a science communicator than a practicing scientist.

What’s coming for Luis Elizando?
1. Alien invasion
2. Government collapse
3. Paranoid delusion in which Elizondo barricades himself in a compound with guns and taunts the government to come get him.
4. Part of the grift to sell more books

I’ll take #4 for $800 Alex https://t.co/3ztW6XuLs7

undefined Michael Shermer (@michaelshermer) January 11, 2026

There was a curious analysis on the Reddit r/UFO forum, with several posters debating the value of skeptical viewpoints. One poster championed the positioning, stating, “If they end up changing their view, then it is far more impactful than someone who has already stated they believe in the phenomenon.”

That faced opposition from another member, who said that "'professional skeptic types tend to already start from the position that whatever is being looked into is BS.”

As Loeb’s task force has three releases (with more on the way), the community awaits with bated breath whether they’ll get their heads down or dismiss whistleblowers out of hand.

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