Where there’s a lack of knowledge and understanding, a new religion is born. We want a simple explanation of the order of things, but it can’t get more complicated than quantum physics, where a cat can simultaneously be dead and alive.
Quantum computing, like AI before the release of ChatGPT just a few years ago, is very much at the margins of the public discourse. The technology isn’t fault-proof, it’s not commercially viable, and therefore, it’s not that interesting to the masses.
However, with recent advances in quantum computing, many agree that the so-called Q-day – the hypothetical day when quantum computers become powerful enough to break classical encryption – might be closer than previously anticipated.
“There is certainly a race for dominance in the field of quantum computing. Each of these announcements raises the flag in the quantum computing battleground. They will spark the interest of many and the continued investment of others,” Troy Nelson, chief technology officer at security firm Lastwall, told Cybernews.
Recently, I asked him what he made of three major announcements by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.
To recap, Google announced a new powerful chip, Willow, hinting at the possibility of a multiverse. Amazon debuted the Ocelot chip, which is supposed to reduce the costs of implementing quantum error correction. Microsoft has used a new type of qubit (topological) for its Majorana 1 chip.
“Even if there is some skepticism or debate about what exactly has been achieved with topological qubits, having another foundational class of qubits and an organization dedicated to pursuing this advancement will only help push this field forward,” Nelson said.
And yes, skepticism is aplenty. Reportedly, many top physicists remain unsold by Microsoft’s claims, and honestly, everyone seems eager to share their two cents after the announcements. Naturally, memes followed.
Morning, World! Today is a BIG day, as I will demonstrate the first practical use of the Microsoft Majorana 1 chip that I obtained through my senator. I will perform non-abelian braiding and Majorana-teleport myself from Pittsburgh to Anaheim, watch me apparate at the 8am talk! And comment later.
undefined Sergey Frolov🇺🇦 (@spinespresso.bsky.social) March 18, 2025 at 1:44 PM
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It’s probably only natural that scientists are unnerved by the lack of evidence that Majorana 1 can actually create new types of qubits. Nelson suggests that we wait and see.
“If the technology proves viable, it could mark a major milestone in the pursuit of a usable quantum computer,” he said.
Research is aplenty, too. One experiment by researchers in Innsbruck, Austria, published just this Friday, claims that the quantum object doesn’t have to be cooled down to its ground state to demonstrate the quantum superposition.
It is a question of when and not if the Q-day will arrive.
The biggest quantum threat
Quantum computers will be able to crack classical encryption algorithms in no time. This threatens our privacy, data security, the stability of the financial system, and even national security, for that matter.
For that reason, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is spearheading the transition towards post-quantum cryptography. Europol recently issued a warning, saying that while quantum computers capable of breaking cryptography could emerge within the next 10 to 15 years, the time required to transition is also significant.
Without post-quantum cryptography, all critical infrastructure would be left defenseless and “would need to revert to a pre-internet era,” Nelson added.
Europol has also sounded alarm bells about the “harvest now, decrypt later” threat. It means that threat actors are sitting on a huge amount of data that they can’t crack just yet but will be able to do so once quantum computers arrive.
“Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide have begun addressing the quantum threat, with the introduction of major regulatory acts in Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States and Singapore. Despite these efforts, a 2023 survey of 200 financial sector leaders found that 86% of organizations feel unprepared for post-quantum cybersecurity,”
Europol noted.
So, are we stressed over nothing, or should we be sounding those alarm bells even louder?
Extremely costly attacks
Quantum computing isn’t going to be something you can subscribe to for $20 a month and unlock military secrets from the comfort of your home. Rob Lee, the chief of research and head of faculty at SANS Institute, recently emphasized that such a cutting-edge technology will be expensive, “which means your average script kiddie or hacker collective isn’t going to be able to get their hands on it.”
At least for some time, only nation-state actors and big corporations like Google and Microsoft, among others, will have access to quantum computing.
Nelson from Lastwall also holds a similar worldview. “Harvest now, decrypt later” attacks will become possible, but they will be very pricey.
“These attacks will only be performed on the most sensitive information that an adversary would want to have, like our defense capabilities or critical infrastructure,” Nelson noted.
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