A new book about space is fresh out of the oven. Unlike many other space-related books that recently caught my attention, this one discusses the market forces and economic framework shaping the future of this frontier.
For Elon Musk to do what he did with SpaceX (Psst. driving down the cost of space travel through bold innovation), many stars had to align. Engineering geniuses willing to work 24/7 sacrificing their own personal life wasn’t enough.
Two decades ago, President George W. Bush’s administration recognized that NASA’s approach to space was troubling due to high costs, delayed schedules, and bureaucracy, among other things. It was decided that NASA should involve private companies to help with the heavy lifting. In short, government money gave a push to Musk and Co.
But also, Musk wouldn’t be where he was if not for the competition.
“If there was a button I could press that would delete Blue Origin (Jeff Bezos space company), I wouldn’t press it…” he once said.
But it’s not only Musk and Bezos who fly high. Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier (February 25th, 2025) by Harvard Business School professor Matthew Weinzierl and space industry expert Brendan Rosseau shows just how rich and interesting the space market is.
“The commercial revolution has reinvigorated the second of two dreams formed at the dawn of the space age, namely that we would not just go to space, but also go to stay,”
the book reads.
SpaceX has proven that a market-oriented approach to space works. Bezos, whose Blue Origin is seen as the turtle in a hare-and-turtle race to space with SpaceX, might have some regrets, as you'll learn if you pick up this book.
I learned quite a bit about Blue Origin – things I hadn't heard about elsewhere, perhaps partly because SpaceX, the hare, dominates space news coverage.
What seems to be in common between all space pioneers and risk-takers is that there’s always more to it than just a wish to earn money. There’s always a vision. There’s always scientific innovation, and, well, risk-taking. Weinzierl and Rosseau argue that companies operating in the space sector need to focus not only on developing their technologies but also their customers’ ability to “use and derive value from those technologies.”
In other words, some technology is so cutting-edge that potential customers might not know what to do with it at first.
To me, the book reads a bit like The Economist – rich with facts, examples, and exemplifying stories but exempt from personal opinions. Usually, when it comes to space, people seem to be either very excited or skeptical about our future in space. Wanting to hear the authors' personal take, I decided to ask them a few questions.
This is a written Q&A.
This is probably the least "enthusiastic" and most objective book on space I've read in a while (plenty of them "offer" opinions on what to think about Musk, Bezos, Mars travel, etc.) Was it hard to write it that way? Or maybe you really had to suppress your personal opinions?
We are enthusiastic about the potential for space, and we believe ambitious visions are essential to it. They drive talented young people and even skeptical investors to help create value that might remain untapped if we had more limited ambitions. But our biggest hopes for space will only be realized if we allocate our attention and resources efficiently and wisely, and doing so requires objectivity, realism, and humility. Nobody can know exactly where we are headed in space activities, and that’s part of the excitement of the moment. Instead, we’ve tried to provide an economics-based framework that helps everyone, enthusiasts and skeptics, understand what’s happening and why it matters.
What are you most worried about when you think of the future of space?
That the current enthusiasm for innovation, dynamism, and experimentation will fade over time, slowing or even halting progress as the challenges of reaching further accumulate and today’s new companies become tomorrow’s incumbents. If you believe in the promise of space to improve the lives of every person and the future of humanity as a whole, the slowing of this progress is the greatest risk.
Do you think space is just another business vertical for the companies to unlock? Or are companies like SpaceX and Blue really driven by the vision of solving current problems, like establishing another space habitat in case of a mass extinction event?
One lesson we took from our research is that vision and value, or purpose and profit, can go together in space. SpaceX and Blue Origin, not to mention many other leading companies, make bold visions a key part of their strategy not only because their leaders believe in them – which we have every reason to think they do – but also because they attract and motivate talented colleagues and investors who want to use market forces to reach them, generating enormous practical value along the way.
As you highlighted, space is a place for peace. However, given the current space race, all the geopolitical tensions between the US and China, and increasing cyberattacks to stall your adversaries' progress in space, how peaceful is it really?
Space has always been a domain of national security, and it likely always will be. The shared value to be gained from maintaining peace is enormous, and we believe the major powers understand that and will avoid undermining it. But the faster we develop economic value in space, the costlier we will make it to sacrifice the peaceful nature of space.
Do the changes in how NASA operates and finances projects lead to innovation or rather just elevate the same problems to another level? For example, scientists are planning to cause global warming on Mars so people can inhabit the planet (this sounds like an extraterrestrial export of problems). There's also the problem of space debris.
We don’t know anyone who thinks making Mars livable is easier than solving terrestrial problems like climate change. Rather, the idea of becoming multi-planetary is driven by the risks of events we can’t avoid, like a massive asteroid impact. Space debris is very much reminiscent of climate change and other terrestrial pollution problems, but we see signs of companies, countries, and others coming together to avoid its worst outcomes. The hopeful flip side of your question is that working in space can help us see our terrestrial challenges in a new light and with new insight.
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