The future of the chip wars

By Snehal Antani, CEO and Co-founder of Horizon3.ai

In a recent trip to the Middle East, US President Donald Trump lifted chip bans on three major Gulf States in an effort to catalyze artificial intelligence (AI) development and strengthen partnerships with American tech enterprises.

But this trip was more than economic dealmaking: it was a critical escalation in what could be one of the most consequential geopolitical struggles in modern history, as the world’s superpowers grapple for technological supremacy.

Semiconductors are the foundational technology of modern civilization, underpinning AI, 5G, aerospace, defense, and quantum computing. They’re also a sobering cybersecurity liability.

While semiconductors themselves are a highly protected asset, their supply chains are riddled with weak points that today’s AI-enabled attackers can easily exploit. A new outflow of chips – not just from America to the Middle East, but anywhere – expands the potential attack surface, making the semiconductor supply chain increasingly vulnerable to low-profile, high-impact offensives.

In some cases, that offensive is as simple as hacking a thermostat.

Clean rooms, the ultra-controlled environments where chips are fabricated, are profoundly vulnerable to cyberattacks. Even the most minor deviation in conditions can have catastrophic consequences.

The military and the defense industry cannot afford to overlook this critical national security vulnerability, and yet, they do. Clean rooms and the profusion of systems required to maintain them aren’t an obvious target, and that’s precisely what makes them so enticing to attackers.

It doesn’t take much. Just a one-degree temperature drift or a slight humidity shift could quietly ruin tens of millions of dollars’ worth of chips. Worse, unstable conditions can damage delicate fabrication equipment, leading to weeks of recalibration or even full replacements. One hit to the HVAC system could easily drive total losses past $150 million before anyone even realizes what happened.

Cyberattacks targeting clean rooms threaten not only private industry but also economic stability, technological leadership, and global security. In the next phase of the chip wars, the decisive factor will not be who manufactures more chips, but who secures the invisible frontlines of semiconductor production.

The geopolitical stakes of semiconductor cybersecurity

Even before Trump’s trip to the Middle East with a phalanx of tech executives, the chip wars were already heating up. The United States responded promptly to China's "Made in China 2025" ambitions with export controls, investments under the CHIPS Act, and strategic alliances, while China is investing more than $150 billion to achieve semiconductor self-reliance.

At the same time, both countries are locked in a vicious AI arms race that — with the entry of other players into the theater of war — could reshape global geopolitics as we know it.

While policymakers focus on capital investment and trade restrictions, they’re neglecting the cybersecurity of semiconductor manufacturing itself. One attack that wipes out a clean room could trigger cascading economic damage and destabilize geopolitical balances — all without a single missile being fired.

Look at Taiwan: the nation’s semiconductor dominance represents a single point of failure for the global economy. A cyberattack-induced shutdown could trigger a global crisis, escalating tensions between major powers. Cyber operations offer adversaries a deniable, scalable, and devastating asymmetric weapon.

Conflicts on the invisible cyber battlefield can bleed into real-life warfare, as chips underpin nations’ most critical defense technologies. Cyber-induced defects or theft of intellectual property could compromise satellites, autonomous systems, and secure communications infrastructure, eroding national defense capabilities.

The economic impacts of a semiconductor supply chain attack can also compromise technological development and national security. Downtime at fabrication facilities can cost over $10 million per day. Environmental contamination events requiring shutdown and requalification can exceed $150 million per incident, with downstream effects paralyzing the automotive, aerospace, or defense industries.

With the future of their entire industrial apparatus at stake, nations cannot afford to neglect supply chain security. Not when one tiny breach can destroy everything they’ve built in an instant.

Clean rooms and the expanding attack surface

Clean rooms must maintain extraordinary standards — such as ISO 14644-1 classifications for air cleanliness — to ensure the safety and functionality of their contents. Temperatures are controlled within ±0.1°C, humidity is precisely managed, and the air is purified and almost entirely free of particulates. Semiconductor manufacturers rely on a network of interconnected systems to maintain these precise conditions, including:

HVAC and filtration controls
Ultrapure water delivery
Specialty gas pipelines
Robotic wafer handling
IoT-enabled operational technology (OT) systems

However, the very technologies that enable precision manufacturing also create a highly interconnected attack surface that adversaries can exploit. Each maintenance system is likely operated or maintained by third-party vendors – often smaller firms with limited cybersecurity resources – that can introduce devastating vulnerabilities into an otherwise hyper-secure environment. In fact, studies show that 60% to 90% of impactful cyberattacks trace back to third-party suppliers.

We can look to recent history for examples of how a seemingly minor vulnerability can transform into a total disaster. In 2013, attackers breached Target’s systems via a third-party HVAC vendor, exposing 40 million customers' data and costing over $200 million.

Five years later, a malware outbreak at TSMC disrupted multiple plants, resulting in losses approaching $170 million. What these costly incidents teach us is that hackers only need one way in – and third-party vendors are often leaving doors wide open.

The delicate environment of a clean room further magnifies the risk. Adversaries can bypass attacking the more muscular, technologically complex processes involved in manufacturing and inflict enormous damage just by fiddling with the thermostat. Consider a few possible scenarios:

IoT Exploitation: Attackers subtly alter temperature or humidity, degrading wafer quality over time. Manufacturers may not realize the attack is more than a mere equipment malfunction until it’s too late.
Third-Party Phishing: A maintenance contractor is compromised, yielding VPN access to building management systems, so attackers can sabotage gas or humidity controls.
Ransomware on Facility Controls: Malware encrypts critical HVAC, ultrapure water, or robotics systems, halting operations and requiring costly rebuilds – all while potentially damaging millions in chips.
Cross-Site Malware Spread: Compromised diagnostic tools propagate malware across multiple plants, crippling global supply chains.

Securing the semiconductor supply chain requires a thorough cybersecurity vetting of any third-party vendors or services that touch clean room infrastructure. Without enforced cybersecurity standards and oversight, the supply chain remains dangerously exposed.

Recommendations for action

Ensuring airtight security across a vast web of specialist vendors requires proactive defense and rigorous enforcement. Fortunately, organizations can take strategic action today to fortify their supply chains:

Expand Cyber Testing to Operational Technology: Prioritize security assessments of clean room infrastructure, not just IT systems. Treat every maintenance device and system like a vital organ.
Implement Zero-Trust Architectures: Aggressively segment networks and restrict third-party access by default.
Fund SMB Cybersecurity Support Programs: American companies can use CHIPS Act resources to subsidize cybersecurity services for critical vendors and maintenance services.
Mandate Cybersecurity Certification: Enforce compliance with industry standards like SEMI E187 and SEMI E188.
Develop Clean Room Resilience Plans: Require incident response and rapid recovery plans for environmental control systems in the event of compromise.

Securing the invisible frontline

Capital investment and R&D can certainly make semiconductors more powerful and accessible, but unless a portion of that investment goes toward more diligent and proactive cybersecurity, dollars won’t win the chip wars.

Every nation’s technological future depends on its ability to safeguard its silicon, and that means protecting the hyper-sensitive manufacturing environments where cyber operations and industrial processes converge.

In this new era, the thermostat may well determine the fate of nations.