Can Bluesky still catch up with X and Threads? And does it really want to?

Bluesky had momentum at the height of the X exodus, but it’s still playing catch-up with Elon Musk’s platform and Meta’s Threads in terms of user numbers. Experts say this may not be a bad thing.

Long seen as a potential alternative to Twitter, now known as X, Bluesky lags far behind Elon Musk’s platform – and Meta’s Threads – in user numbers and still struggles with the perception of being a left-wing echo chamber. But that might be exactly where it needs to stay to make an impact.

“To gain ground, Bluesky needs to double down on the values that set it apart, and those values are transparency, decentralization, and user control,” said Fatima Sirhindi, senior social media strategist at ICUC.social, a social media and online community management agency owned by Dentsu.

Bluesky, which was only opened up to the public in February 2024, currently has 37 million users, according to online tracker Bluesky User Count. It pales in comparison to X, which is believed to have hundreds of millions of users, or Threads, which Meta claims has 350 million users.

While Bluesky is gaining traction, it’s “hard to predict if it’ll ultimately rival X or Threads in terms of reach and influence,” says Kelley Muhsemann, marketing manager at R.W. Rogé & Company, a financial advisory and wealth management firm.

However, social media is a long game – even Twitter took several years to take off after its 2006 launch, becoming a household name only after the 2008 US presidential election, when politicians and journalists began using it widely. It was followed by a wave of celebrity adoption led by high-profile figures like Oprah Winfrey, who helped boost its mainstream appeal further.

“Bluesky is making some smart moves by focusing on the user experience, but if it wants to catch up to what I like to call the big three, it’ll need to bring in big voices and really differentiate itself,” Muhsemann said, referring to Facebook, X, and LinkedIn.

Some big names have joined recently, including Democratic heavyweights Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Vice President JD Vance was suspended 12 minutes after he announced he had joined the platform. Although the ban was later reversed, it reinforced Bluesky’s left-leaning image, where debates are often one-sided – a dynamic that critics say makes the platform feel dull and “boring” to use.

Room for growth: “Personalization is everything”

Politics elevated Twitter to the status of a public forum but also turned it into a battlefield, where every tweet invited conflict – a spiral that led to the platform’s eventual takeover by billionaire Elon Musk and its further radicalization. That may be one reason why Bluesky said sports discussions – rather than politics – are its “top priority.”

Sports is one of the fastest growing drivers of engagement online, fueling real-time conversations, loyalty, and community – exactly what Bluesky needs. The platform has just added activity notifications, which is expected to help users keep up with news and developments they’re interested in, a feature that rivals like X already have.

According to Muhsemann, a marketing manager, features like push notifications make it easier to find relevant content and help users build feeds that reflect their specific interests.

“If Bluesky continues to roll out features that prioritize user customization, it has a real opportunity to challenge platforms like X and Threads,” she said, adding that “personalization is everything right now.”

But some basic features are still missing. “Bluesky isn’t correcting its weaknesses fast enough,” said Jason Patterson of Jewel Content Marketing Agency.

“It still lacks the ability to natively schedule posts, which is probably the biggest dealbreaker to anyone serious about social media. And a lot of people with big followings on X are simply refusing to migrate.”

That reluctance has given Bluesky the feel of a small town rather than a thriving global community – even though some experts believe that it does not need to become one.

Fragmentation is the name of the game

According to Jonathan Snow, co-founder of the digital agency Avenue Z, Bluesky’s true potential lies in becoming the “infrastructure” behind a broader ecosystem of social experiences – ones that break from the centralized controls of traditional networks.

That vision will still require work, including clear monetization tools for creators, a polished interface, and robust moderation protocols.

“Bluesky doesn’t need to rival X or Threads in the traditional sense to be successful because it’s playing an entirely different game,” said Snow.

With the social media landscape grows more fragmented, success may no longer mean dominance, said Danielle Dullaghan, social strategy director at branding agency Iris, as users gravitate toward platforms that reflect their values, politics, and identities.

"Bluesky might not need to 'catch up' to X of Threads in the traditional sense, because the future of social isn't about a single dominant platform, but rather a patchwork of niche communities," Dullaghan said.

Other experts echo that view. “If it stays focused on building a loyal user base around decentralized values and meaningful interactions, it could carve out a powerful niche,” Sirhindi said, noting that overtaking platforms like X in size may not be the goal for Bluesky.

According to Muhsemann, “Bluesky feels more like a complement than a direct competitor. It’s carving out a thoughtful niche for privacy-focused, tech-savvy users who want high-quality, intentional interactions.”

Which means that success may not be measured by size alone. It will depend on how well a platform serves the needs of its users – whether that’s through customization, decentralization, or simply offering a less toxic online experience.

In that sense, Bluesky may already be winning, on its own terms.